06 Bordeaux, Time to send a message?

Is it just me, or is the 06 vintage a perfect example of a "non value" vintage?
Everything I've read about this vintage seems to mark it as one that offers solid but not "vintage of the whatever" wines. Yet the prices are nothing if not impressive! I just got an email from the Chicago Wine Company alerting me of the opportunity to pick up the 06 Gruaud LaRose for $54.00 a bottle!

I've always enjoyed this St Julien but I won't be buying any at this ridiculous price! Definitely time to send a big yawn back across the Atlantic! Tom V

When Caramel Machiatto-style Cult Napa Cabs are in the $59 range (Hello, Tamber Bleh), that doesn't sound too bad.

There is truth in that Brian. By the same token, there are wines that would make the Gruaud look like a rather poor value. I was looking at the 06 Bordeaux within the limited context of only Bordeaux. Tom V

Is it that time of the year again?

They both sound too bad to me Brian. Cost of gasoline be damned.

'tis sad, no? Of course, nobody forced me to buy and drive a mid-life crisis (with a spoiler, to boot) that GUZZLES premium.

'tis sad, no? Of course, nobody forced me to buy and drive a mid-life crisis (with a spoiler, to boot) that GUZZLES premium.

I am driving a 2004 Chevrolet Silverado with a small V8. I topped off the tank yesterday from 3/4 full to full, and it cost me about $30. Yes it is sad.

What the world really needs is an automobile that runs on wine. Solve the vinos surplus, help the energy crunch, and put bad wine to a better use. Tom V

What the world really needs is an automobile that runs on wine. Solve the vinos surplus, help the energy crunch, and put bad wine to a better use. Tom V

What vino surplus, Tom? Currently the only surpluses are strictly local (France, for instance, and that largely because of the govt kowtowing to the ag lobby and not restricting overcropping). Ain't no worldwide surplus. So far, most producing countries are selling what they're making.

Of course, that will change, and quickly, but it isn't right now.

Now I'm not saying your proposal doesn't have merit, mind you. If corn doesn't cut it, why can't we use that coming excess to fuel our cars. Some of it would be better used that way.

Hoke wrote:

"What vino surplus, Tom? Currently the only surpluses are strictly local (France, for instance, and that largely because of the govt kowtowing to the ag lobby and not restricting overcropping). Ain't no worldwide surplus. So far, most producing countries are selling what they're making. "


I don't have facts and figures for you Hoke, but I have read numerous articles in the last couple of years about wine and grape surpluses. Australia comes to mind among others. I've also read about the grapes and what the grapes become being used for other products very cheaply because there are no buyers in the wine arena. Tom V

But things change quickly, Tom.

For instance, Australia has had two almost disastrous vintages in a row (drought), with some areas reporting up to 70% losses. That sort of thing tends to dry up a 'wine lake' pretty quickly.

You're right , of course, that some areas over produce, but the looming overage of many areas of just a couple of years ago (like, say, CA) don't exist now.

And a lot depends on what grape you are searching for too.

Think about it; if there was such a tremendous oversupply/over production, would you still be complaining about the prices of Bordeaux?

Might surprise you, Tom, but in general looks like wine prices will be going UPn not down.

Think about it; if there was such a tremendous oversupply/over production, would you still be complaining about the prices of Bordeaux?

Might surprise you, Tom, but in general looks like wine prices will be going UPn not down.

I see your point Hoke, with such an undependable source of cheap wine I guess it just wouldn't pay to develop the "vino mobile". Well, I was just trying to be helpful.

But, as far as the price of Bordeaux, and for that matter other wines that have cache, I don't think the supply situation has much to do with the price. For the majority of producers, they'll spin it any way they can and squeeze out the last nickel they can. What the heck, something is, in the end, worth whatever someone else is willing to pay, right?

My point was just that when a so so vintage follows a "whatever of the century" vintage, and the prices don't seem to accurately reflect that fact, I for one 'am disappointed, and feel the need to register that disappointment by electing not to buy.

Remember 2001? There were some stellar values to be had in futures which I took advantage of, but I wonder if we will see that sort of opportunity again. Tom V

Tom, for what it is worth I am in agreement with you. When a vintner (or whatever) sells his excellent wine for XYZ dollars, and then the next vintage is only half as good, it should IMO cost me less. Not half as much, but less, and that used to be the case, especially with French wines. Now Hoke, being ITB, probably has a much better handle on the why's and the why not's, but I OTOH have a better handle on my wallet.

Tom,

There are at least 6 billion people who would agree with you, but perhaps 6 to 10 million people who would have no trouble with those prices, given that there are 3 million millionaires in the US, alone, not counting their homes in their net worth.

You might be a millionaire and just frugally minded, but with millionaires growing in number by leaps and bounds, and Bordeaux bottles remaining at the same volume (about 35 million bottles of the good stuff per year), it will only be a short time before no middle class person will even think about buying fine Bordeaux.

Covert

[Jenise]

and then the next vintage is only half as good, it should IMO cost me less. Not half as much, but less, and that used to be the case, especially with French wines.

Bob, pretend I'm a Bordeaux winemaker talking: Only half as good in whose opinion? I make the best wine I can EVERY year, and I have never made bad wine. It's just that some are better for drinking soon and some are better for cellaring a long time. I should give my wine away just because you Americans don't get it?

Remember 2001? There were some stellar values to be had in futures which I took advantage of, but I wonder if we will see that sort of opportunity again.

Sure, it's already happening. For instance, Parker gave the 2004 and 2005 Palmers almost identical scores, but last I looked at one California source the 04 was priced around $100 and the 05 was around $230. And the 04's are selling relatively cheap on the secondary market already because retail buyers are saving their sheckels for the 2005's. Just wait until the 05's actually show up, you'll see bargains.

Tom,
... with millionaires growing in number by leaps and bounds, and Bordeaux bottles remaining at the same volume (about 35 million bottles of the good stuff per year), it will only be a short time before no middle class person will even think about buying fine Bordeaux.

Covert

I would say, Covert, that between the point you make and the fairly recent and growing interest in fine wine in the Far East, your prediction will eventually become a reality. In fact, in large measure it already is!

I am very happy to have a decent Bordeaux cellar that could meet my wants until I myself 'am more than a little "bricking around the edges"!

Which of course doesn't mean I won't keep an eye out for those bargains Jenise promises...Hey, a decent cellar is a nice thing to leave one's kids, right? Tom V

Bob, pretend I'm a Bordeaux winemaker talking: Only half as good in whose opinion? I make the best wine I can EVERY year, and I have never made bad wine. It's just that some are better for drinking soon and some are better for cellaring a long time. I should give my wine away just because you Americans don't get it?

Jenise, I, having grown up on a farm understand that grape growers are in essence are farmers. As such I understand that the farmer has to make enough money to live until the next crop. However I also know that the farmer is held captive by weather, My father grew cotton and corn. cotton could have it's value diminished by rain pounding down and splashing dirt up on the to bolls. This of course diminished the price the cotton would bring. All farm produce price is diminished when the product quality is not up to par. Wine is also a farm product, and not so good wine deserves a lesser price than a good wine,and an outstanding wine deserves more money than a good wine. Or else I will just leave my money in my pocket. And I might say that a bargain is in the eye of the beholder and his purse. You are correct though Jenise in that the winemaker does the best he can with what he has to work with, but he can't sell it to me, if he needs top dollar or top franc, or top lira or top mark or top Euro. This has grown too long as it is and the Henrick clan is known for long windedness so I better let go now. I do understand though Jenise that you are just playing the devil's advocate....aren't you?

[David M. Bueker]

Given the current state of affirs my go-forward strategy is simple: buy some lower cost, shorter aging Bordeaux (e.g. wines from Cotes de Castillon, Moulis, Cote de Francs, etc.) for current and medium term consumption, and let my big boys from 1998-2004 sleep the sleep of the just until they are good and ready.

There are still values out there. I got some 2005 Haut-Bergey for well south of $30 that will likely be delicious wine. That's not such bad value. Potensac and Poujeaux have not gone up much. Sociando has gone up, but not a lot, and it's still worth the price they ask.

[Jenise]

I do understand though Jenise that you are just playing the devil's advocate....aren't you?

Of course I am, but I was also serious about who gets to be the arbiter of good in your case. I'm fine if it's the farmer. But if it's anyone else, or if it's based on some kind of vintage generalization which may have nothing to do with a given product, then forget it. Or to put it another way, I'm pretty comfortable with supply and demand: if there's not enough demand, the prices will come down. If there's strong demand, prices will go up. I say, let them!

Of course I am, but I was also serious about who gets to be the arbiter of good in your case. I'm fine if it's the farmer. But if it's anyone else, or if it's based on some kind of vintage generalization which may have nothing to do with a given product, then forget it. Or to put it another way, I'm pretty comfortable with supply and demand: if there's not enough demand, the prices will come down. If there's strong demand, prices will go up. I say, let them!

Jenise, I am sure that you will allow anyone to judge for them self whether a wine is good wine or not a good wine. After all that is also a factor in the supply and demand that you speak of. At least it is a part of the demand.So if I say that the vintage is not good, then I don't join in with the demand. I believe though that a winery does themselves no good by holding or raising prices for lesser vintages. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know a lesser vintage from a good or better vintage.

[I am very happy to have a decent Bordeaux cellar that could meet my wants until I myself 'am more than a little "bricking around the edges"! Which of course doesn't mean I won't keep an eye out for those bargains Jenise promises...Hey, a decent cellar is a nice thing to leave one's kids, right?

I likewise have built a Classed Growth cellar to meet my needs until the age when my taste buds probably won't care what I drink (except I have read recently that one's olfactory capability does not diminish all that much with age). My strategy now is seeking out lesser-name Cru Bourgeois to drink two to one against Classed Growths. It's a wonderful strategy in that these "lesser" properties have gotten much better with modern technology and when I do drink a "better" wine, it tastes much better than Classed Growths used to when I drank them predominantly.

I passed on the kids; however, when I tried to interest nieces and nephews in fine wine - and then, later, every pretty young girl I met, with the idea of leaving whatever was left to any one of them, it didn't take (I think I will Will it to the Albany homeless for the fun of the idea [while I am alive] that the gesture will probably make the local news). I think it is as rare to have a kid follow your interest in wine as it is to find such an interest in a neighbor, or co-worker, which I have yet to have happen.

[Jenise]

When a vintner (or whatever) sells his excellent wine for XYZ dollars, and then the next vintage is only half as good, it should IMO cost me less.

and

I am sure that you will allow anyone to judge for them self whether a wine is good wine or not a good wine.

Of course.

But your original comment wasn't about your options, it was about how the vintner should price his wines. That means someone else has to be the ultimate judge of when a wine is "only half as good" and I'm here to tell you that the vintners in Burgundy and Bordeaux will NEVER agree that any vintage is "only half as good" as another. They are like parents--all their children are beautiful. And they are sometimes fonder of the child who is a little slower, a little more timid, a little harder to raise.

Let him put his wine out there at the cost he needs to survive and make more wine, while living comfortably. Then let the marketplace decide if it's enough or not.

I would agree with those sentiments, Jenise. And nicely said.

I personally think the Bordeaux Classed Growths---not Bordeaux in general, min you, but specifically the Classed Growths, and even more specifically the top tier of those---is long overdue for a cyclical correction. But that's due to a variety of reasons, economic and social. Still, I do recall when the correction periods were more frequent, and more effective. There's no such thing as an unending boom---as the stock market and economic cycles teach us over and over and over. It's just that the top tier in Bordeaux have enjoyed in an unusually long boom.

The truly sad part, I think, is that the rising tide, once again, doesn't float all boats. The magic glow of success in the top growths does not always trickle down to the lesser growers. Beyond the grand estates, I think many Bordelais aren't faring all that well.

I guess it's no different than the folks in the US, and people globally, though. From all the recent reports, the top 1% of the top 1% are increasing their wealth exponentially, while the vast majority of everyone below that level is losing their buying power and economic stability.

But, eventually, even there, we can expect a correction. It will probably be ugly and violent, but it will happen. Always does. Then it will start all over again. Natural forces at work.

Of course.
But your original comment wasn't about your options, it was about how the vintner should price his wines. That means someone else has to be the ultimate judge of when a wine is "only half as good" and I'm here to tell you that the vintners in Burgundy and Bordeaux will NEVER agree that any vintage is "only half as good" as another. They are like parents--all their children are beautiful. And they are sometimes fonder of the child who is a little slower, a little more timid, a little harder to raise.

Let him put his wine out there at the cost he needs to survive and make more wine, while living comfortably. Then let the marketplace decide if it's enough or not.

Jenise, I cannot deny the logic of what you say about putting it out there to let the market decide.

However, has there ever lived a wine maker, or grape grower, or vintner of any sort, from anywhere, that can not tell that is current vintage is not up to the usual quality of his wines? Maybe I am being naive, but it seems to me that if I had a product that I knew was faulty that was obviously not of the quality I would want my product to be, regardless of the reason for the lack of quality, I would not risk damaging my reputation by increasing prices (or even holding the price steady) from the level I sold the excellent product for.

When I make a comment like my first in this thread, it was just an opinion, and was probably not clearly expressed, but my opinion never the less. Let me give you a scenario and ask a question. Lets say you buy a bottle of XYZ wine that you are familiar with, and one that you usually buy a few of every year. The last you bought cost you $35 per, now you see that the next vintage is out and on the shelf. So, knowing the wine (if not the vintage) you pick up a couple bottles and the wine now costs you $40 per. a few weeks pass and you decide to try one of the two so you can decide whether you might want a couple more. You open the wine and you find a thin, weedy, wine with little if any of the fruit you are used to in the wine. Hmmm, you say, I don't think this wine is corked, but I am not getting much from it, so you open the second bottle and find it identical to the first. Do you smile and say (to yourself) something like "well, Joe the wine maker made the best wine he could make from the fruit he grew, and he needed the $40? If you do, then you and I are as different as day and night. If I saw that kind of (chicanery?) I would probably write that winemaker off my list off wines to buy, and I might not revisit the label again. There are too many wines in the world for me to spend that kind of money and find little if any satisfaction from the wine.