WTN: Monte Carlo Simulation

[David M. Bueker]

• 2013 Chateau Montelena Cabernet Sauvignon The Montelena Estate - USA, California, Napa Valley, Calistoga (1/9/2026)
  First bottle I have opened from a solid six pack that was left in my late father’s cellar, though I gave one to a friend.
  
  Opened about 90 minutes ahead, and while not closed in it was certainly dense - a Cabernet dwarf star of a wine. By the time dinner rolled around it was still coiled up, but starting to put out little bits and pieces. There was a touch of dark chocolate, some dark black fruit (cassis, plum maybe), and a lumbering, gravelly earthiness. It really did not want to be disturbed. The structure seemed properly balanced, so I don’t worry about cellaring it, but it’s more my own mortality that could be the limiting factor for my remaining bottles.

Thanks for the tasting note. I have a case of this wine and had been planning to wait until 2028 to open any.

-Paul W.

David, that same visceral impulse shot through me in 2003 when i had Syrah from Bassetti Vineyard in the press, and as the press pan filled up I drew a sample, and tasted, and immediately found myself thinking "I will not still be alive when this wine becomes mature and ready to drink." That still remains to be seen, and, given the kind of life that has unfolded for me over a bit more than 78 years, I can no longer even imagine with any certainty whether my thought at that time still pertains, and that life keeps its cards pretty close to the vest. And that one taste at any particular time is not necessarily sufficient, sample-size wise, to be a reliable predictor of future outcome. Duh...

[David M. Bueker]

Well my recent taste of your 2003 Bassetti would seem to indicate that you were correct in your initial assessment.

First of all, David, I may be one of the few people reading your note who's actually published on the subject of Monte Carlo simulations. And, yes, those Montelena Cabs are quite impenetrabable in their "early" existence in my experience, and though not quite as unchanging as Dunn Howell Mountain, there is a family resemblance. I recall having a 1978 Estate Cab ca. 2005 and, although the tannins had subdued, it was still quite primary, causing me to wonder whether those wines ever truly evolve (in contast to merely enduring).

[David M. Bueker]

First of all, David, I may be one of the few people reading your note who's actually published on the subject of Monte Carlo simulations. And, yes, those Montelena Cabs are quite impenetrabable in their "early" existence in my experience, and though not quite as unchanging as Dunn Howell Mountain, there is a family resemblance. I recall having a 1978 Estate Cab ca. 2005 and, although the tannins had subdued, it was still quite primary, causing me to wonder whether those wines ever truly evolve (in contast to merely enduring).

Bravo on the publishing! I’ve worked with MCS outside of retirement portfolio assessments, but not written about them.

I think it’s vintage dependent for the Montelenas. The 1991 I opened in 2023 was beautifully evolved. The ‘86 I opened in October 2025 was almost a barrel sample.