Bordeaux Futures

So I decided that I was going to purchase a mixed case at Bassins not to exceed $500 total, and I printed out their list and highlighted bottles between $20-$50 that sounded interesting according to their reviews.

I have a coworker who wants me to purchase a case for him as well, but he's thinking more in terms of investment (I'm doing it because I want to have some around in 7-20 years to drink and not pay as much later).

But now I've gone back and read some of what has been posted here about the 2005 futures, and I'm wondering if this is just stupid? Am I not really saving any money in the end? And more importantly for my friend, are bottles in this price range not a good investment?

[David M. Bueker]

$20-$50 wines are not a good investment. Only the very top wines will be worth it for that reason (e.g. the 1sts, Cheval Blanc, perhaps some highly rated 2nds like Cos or Barton).

As for buying to drink, there are still some values in that price range. What are you looking at?

I am not a futures expert but have purchased some in the past and have ordered a couple of cases of 2005 from MacArthur. However, if it was not for the fact that my niece was born in 2005 I would probably have a harder time deciding if it was the right thing to do.

I remember the 1996 Calon Sequr that I bought on futures. Think I paid about $30-$35 a bottle and it released at $85 in our area. You can still get it and believe it now sells for $78. Yes I got a great discount to the release price but all these years later I can still purchase it and for slightly less than release.

Not sure if the 2005 will still be available in 2015. Seems there is great demand for the futures even at these outrageous prices. When I first looked over the futures list from MacArthur, Calvert and others to figure out what I might want it took me a few days and by then some of my initial selections were already gone. I checked the latest MacArthur list and some of what I ended up ordering are now no longer available.

I would never invest in wine but if you have a friend that is interested they need to consider a couple of things. How are they going to sell the wine later. There may be restrictions or fees associated that make it not such a good investment. Since they are looking at lower/mid priced offerings, the upside is lower to start with and these fees/restrictions may make it no longer attractive. Also is the 2005 vintage over-hyped. The 1996 vintage that I mentioned above turned out to be a lower rated vintage once released than it was when tasted from barrel. Most of the score droped and so a portion of the interest in the wines. When you have a vintage with such attention as 2005 it is hard to be better than advertised. The future prices have been pushed to sky high levels so how much more can they go up on release and after they make it to the auction market? The Calon that cost me in the $30s on futures for the 1996 cost me in the $80s for the 2005. The 1996 came out with a release price over 2.5X the future price I paid. If that were to happen with the 2005 vintage, my Calon will release at over $200 a bottle. I do not expect that will be the case but I have been wrong before.

I agree it's unlikely that one would do well from an investment standpoint. Compared to other investments, wine has higher carrying costs (you'll need to show storage history to sell) and higher transaction costs. The 2005 prices are considerably higher than past prices, while no one actually knows where prices will go, it decreases the chance of a windfall.

Do you have personal styles you prefer? That should of course influence what you choose. I bought less in 2005 due to the prices. But for my tastes I bought:
some $12-15 Medoc wines that have a history of aging well (Tronquoy-Lalande, Petit Bocq, Caronne St Gemme)
Some $30-40 wines (du Tertre, Rouget, Barde-Haut)
Only over $50 wine I bought was Beausejour Duffau.

With the reputation of the vintage as tannic and long-lived, I figure most of these will be drinking well in 2016-2025, with maybe the du Tertre and Beausejour Duffau lasting longer. I probably need some Right Bank satellites too, but those tend to not be that much more expensive (if at all) at release. If 7 years is part of your idea, you might look for some of those or more modern St Emilions like Fonbel, Fonroque, Faugeres, etc as part of your portfolio- those tend not to close down as much.

I never worry about the "investment" I'm making in terms of my wine futures becoming more valuable 7, 10 or 25 years down the road. I have focused on buying good bordeaux in the second, third and fourth growths. (Yes, I sometimes buy the firsts and any others that catch my fancy...) Once I take possession I try not to look back. What do I gain? Often the wines do indeed go up in value and I have the satisfaction of knowing that I can go to my cellar and drink a good bottle of wine without paying top dollar. In addition, I know the history of my bottle. That is to say it hasn't been sitting in some car during the middle of a hot Napa day while the buyer visited tasting rooms and wine shops. Lastly, I so enjoy the qualities of an older, aged wine, that I am just glad to have the bottle.
My advice; buy your wine with the focus on drinking a good bordeaux. Period. If you want to stay away from futures and the wondering if you're getting a good buy, purchase the wine when it is released in your local wine shop. Get to know the kind of bordeaux that you like. For example, do you like a good Margaux, or something from Pauillac? Experiment with these wines in a price range you are comfortable with.

My advice; buy your wine with the focus on drinking a good bordeaux. Period. If you want to stay away from futures and the wondering if you're getting a good buy, purchase the wine when it is released in your local wine shop.

I think this is good advice, Eva, except the "local" part. You might live in New York City, but if somebody lives in the sticks, his or her local wine store might charge 50% to twice that of the big city retailers. Most folks would be better off ordering online from volume retailers.

Well, I took the plunge and ordered a mixed case of the following. I'd be interested in hearing opinions on any of these, as I had absolutely NO idea what I was doing and I relied solely on my minimal knowledge of the reputation of some of the villages and the store clerk's advice:

2005 Chateau Carmes Rieussec - Sauternes
2005 Chateau Haut Bergey Blanc - Pessac
2005 Chateau Carbonnieux Blanc - Pessac
2005 Chateau Malartic Lagravieres - Pessac (2)
2005 Chateau Corbin - St.-Emilion (2)
2005 Chateau Boyd Cantenac - Margaux
36459 2005 Chateau Clarke - Medoc (2)
2005 Chateau Phelan Segur - St.-Estephe (2)

As always, thanks for your feedback!

K,
nice list. Obviously I haven't tasted any of these, but I think they should be solid. Is 2005 supposed to be good foir whites too? The Carbonnieux is generally considered one of the best values in Bdx blanc.

I'm with Eva and Covert - ignore investment reasons and buy what you like. Regardless of final value, I love pulling out a 1989 Bordeaux. Am I pleased that I paid $20 and it's selling for $150.00 if you can find it? Of course, but I'm not going to sell it, I'm going to enjoy it. Besides, a real investment in wine, i.e.: to make some real profit, would take a lot more money than I have; a case or two or three isn't going to do it.