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Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

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Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Robin Garr » Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:34 pm

(This week's 30 Second Wine Advisor)

Trick or treat: Wine tariffs land today

No matter where you stand on the political spectrum, I don't think you're going to be overjoyed about the Trump Administration's tariffs that go into force today.

The tariffs will add an immediate 25 percent tax on French, German and Spanish wines, as well as Parmesan cheese, mussels, coffee, single-malt whiskeys and other agricultural goods from Europe. The list of taxed products, The New York Times wrote earlier this month, "reads like a gourmet shopping list."

In a grown-up version of the game "he said, she said," the tariffs emerge from a long-running U.S. complaint over subsidies given to the European plane maker Airbus, which hit the American plane maker Boeing hard. In a Wednesday ruling, the World Trade Organization declared the subsidies illegal and approved the U.S. plan to recoup the loss by imposing tariffs sufficient to block $7.5 billion in trade from Europe.

Yeah, sure, okay, fine, but for lovers of wines from France, Germany, and Spain, not to mention other good things like European cheese and olives, a tax that high represents a punch in the pocketbook.

The tariff could add $100 to the $398 price for a bottle of Chateau Cos d'Estournel.
"Wineries and importers are baffled and furious," wrote Wine Spectator, in an article published today by writer Mitch Frank headlined "Your Favorite Old World Wine Is About to Get Much More Expensive. "They say the tariffs are so large that they will have no choice but to pass along at least some of the cost to American consumers, though they may cut profit margins to try to minimize the price increases. They expect to lose sales and suffer financially until the trade dispute is settled and they fear that they may lose customers for years to come."

"It's a nightmare," Aurélie Bertin of Chateau Sainte-Roseline in southern France told USA Today. "We don't know what will be the result." Her rosé wine business has boomed in recent years thanks to American demand for the beverage, USA Today reported. "She fears her U.S. sales could drop by a third under the new tariffs."

"The costs will be borne at all levels of the trade—producer, importer, distributor, retailer, restaurateur and by consumers too," Martin Sinkoff, former vice president at importer Frederick Wildman & Sons, who now works as a consultant, told Wine Spectator. "Consumers can expect to pay 20% to 30% more for the same wines they buy now."

"Multiple wineries and importers say that they will try to swallow at least some of the cost, but they cannot swallow it all," Wine Spectator said.

But wait! It gets worse! W. Blake Gray at Wine-Searcher.com opined Tuesday that the tariff would be imposed on the wines as they enter the U.S. State and local taxes would then be added, Gray said, based on the import price; which would that the actual price increase could be closer to 30 percent: A wine that is now $20 could become $26, which is a big psychological leap. (This opinion is not universally held. Watch for discussion on this post.)

But there's an asterisk for canny wine buyers who are willing to look for alternatives to the tariffed wines. " The tax is aimed squarely at table wines below 14 percent alcohol, which includes most Bordeaux, Burgundy, and German Rieslings, among other popular imports. But stronger wines, which are increasingly available in this warming age, won't be taxed. Neither will wines from Italy or Portugal, Eastern Europe, and the rest of the world.

While we wait out the tariffs, that's our choice, then. Dig down deeper for the light, elegant European wines that we love. Or rewrite our shopping list. What's your pleasure?
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by David M. Bueker » Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:49 pm

Robin Garr wrote:(This week's 30 Second Wine Advisor)

But wait! It gets worse! W. Blake Gray at Wine-Searcher.com opined Tuesday that the tariff would be imposed on the wines as they enter the U.S. State and local taxes would then be added, Gray said, based on the import price; which would that the actual price increase could be closer to 30 percent: A wine that is now $20 could become $26, which is a big psychological leap. (This opinion is not universally held. Watch for discussion on this post.)


The opinion is not universally held by that fascinating individual known as Math.

If all tiers of markup remain at the same percentage as before the tariffs (i.e. nobody decides to take a bigger cut and blame the tariffs), and there is no change to state tax rules, then a 25% tariff results in a 25% increase to the consumer.

I have seen at least ten stories, and countless social media posts, claiming that 25% tariffs will result in anywhere from 30-60% increases to the consumer. It’s all BS. A 25% tariff is exactly the same from a shelf price standpoint as a 25% increase from the winery. Somebody has to get greedy for it to be any more than that to the consumer.
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Robin Garr » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:56 pm

David M. Bueker wrote:... If all tiers of markup remain at the same percentage as before the tariffs (i.e. nobody decides to take a bigger cut and blame the tariffs), and there is no change to state tax rules, then a 25% tariff results in a 25% increase to the consumer.

I have seen at least ten stories, and countless social media posts, claiming that 25% tariffs will result in anywhere from 30-60% increases to the consumer. It’s all BS. A 25% tariff is exactly the same from a shelf price standpoint as a 25% increase from the winery. Somebody has to get greedy for it to be any more than that to the consumer.


Okay, I bow to your math skills, but help me with this. If, as Blake says, the 25% tariff is added upon arrival on our shores, then doesn't that increase the price that state and local sales taxes are calculated from? So a $200 bottle of Cos d'Estournel becomes a $250 bottle when the tariff is added. The 6 percent Kentucky sales tax on the original price would add $12 for a total of $212. But the same 6 percent calculated on the tariffed bottle would be $15, making the combination $265. What am I missing?
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by David M. Bueker » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:41 pm

The result is still a 25% increase in price. $265 is $53 more than $212. $212 divided by 4 is $53.
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Victorwine » Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:12 pm

Is it a 25% increase on the cost of the wine or a 25% increase on the tariff already in place?

Thomas Pellechia wrote a good article about this

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomaspell ... 237cc7400b

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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by David M. Bueker » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:09 am

It is a 25% tariff based on the import value of the wine. The existing wine tariff was 15 cents per liter or something close to that.

I will read his article later.
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by David M. Bueker » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:17 am

OK, read the article. It’s out of date. The tariffs imposed on October 18 were part of a WTO sanctioned increase on $7,5 billion of goods due to the decision in a case related to improper EU subsidies. It has less than usual to do with Trump’s temper tantrums.
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Tim York » Mon Oct 21, 2019 7:09 am

Robin Garr wrote:But stronger wines, which are increasingly available in this warming age, won't be taxed. Neither will wines from Italy or Portugal, Eastern Europe, and the rest of the world.



Interesting! Is this another attack by the Trump administration on the integrity of the EU by singling out French and German wines?

How far do you think that wine sales are price sensitive in the USA? It's my guess that it is wines currently selling for less than c.$30-40 which will be most affected with the damage getting progressively greater the lower the present price. Above that level, higher prices could add trophy appeal. Californian competition is not exactly restrained in price.

Hopefully for us EU consumers, softening US demand in the <€30 range will take pressure off prices here.

This weekend, Jancis Robinson has devoted her FT column to highlighting the price escalation in wine at all levels, especially the higher end. This seems anomalous at a time when central bankers are regularly undershooting their inflation targets.
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Robin Garr » Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:18 am

Tim York wrote:Interesting! Is this another attack by the Trump administration on the integrity of the EU by singling out French and German wines?.


Tim, I don't know, but if I recall correctly, one of the articles suggested that it was a targeted move against countries that house large Airbus factories.

How far do you think that wine sales are price sensitive in the USA? It's my guess that it is wines currently selling for less than c.$30-40 which will be most affected with the damage getting progressively greater the lower the present price. Above that level, higher prices could add trophy appeal. Californian competition is not exactly restrained in price.


Intuitively, I'd agree that the (relative) mass market would be most effected, while wine geeks and trophy hunters seeking more pricey/sought-after wines will bite their lip and take it. There might be some impact, but I agree that it might be less.

Hopefully for us EU consumers, softening US demand in the <€30 range will take pressure off prices here.

This weekend, Jancis Robinson has devoted her FT column to highlighting the price escalation in wine at all levels, especially the higher end. This seems anomalous at a time when central bankers are regularly undershooting their inflation targets.


It makes me sad that I'm no longer comfortable buying a lot of wines that I used to drink routinely, and alao less likely to drink wine every day. :(
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Tim York » Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:06 pm

Robin Garr wrote:
Tim York wrote:Interesting! Is this another attack by the Trump administration on the integrity of the EU by singling out French and German wines?.


Tim, I don't know, but if I recall correctly, one of the articles suggested that it was a targeted move against countries that house large Airbus factories.


That does make a crude sort of sense, if one accepts tit for tat in world commerce. I fear that it is a lose-lose situation :( .
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by David M. Bueker » Mon Oct 21, 2019 9:10 pm

Let’s go back to the underlying authorization for these tariffs, which is the WTO decision that Germany, Spain, France and the UK unfairly subsidized Airbus. That is why most of the bigger targets of the tariffs are from those countries.

The case that the USA brought against Airbus as the WTO was initiated in 2004. It was not a Trump administration action that led to the WTO’s decision.
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Tim York » Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:16 am

David M. Bueker wrote:Let’s go back to the underlying authorization for these tariffs, which is the WTO decision that Germany, Spain, France and the UK unfairly subsidized Airbus. That is why most of the bigger targets of the tariffs are from those countries.

The case that the USA brought against Airbus as the WTO was initiated in 2004. It was not a Trump administration action that led to the WTO’s decision.


Well, I'm all in favour of the WTO. Can we be confident that the US administration will respect its decisions when they they are unfavourable to it or to Boeing?
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by Peter May » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:21 am

Tim York wrote:
Well, I'm all in favour of the WTO. Can we be confident that the US administration will respect its decisions when they they are unfavourable to it or to Boeing?


Yeah, right !

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Wine Advisor: Trick or treat - Wine tariffs land today

by David M. Bueker » Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:22 am

Tim York wrote:
David M. Bueker wrote:Let’s go back to the underlying authorization for these tariffs, which is the WTO decision that Germany, Spain, France and the UK unfairly subsidized Airbus. That is why most of the bigger targets of the tariffs are from those countries.

The case that the USA brought against Airbus as the WTO was initiated in 2004. It was not a Trump administration action that led to the WTO’s decision.


Well, I'm all in favour of the WTO. Can we be confident that the US administration will respect its decisions when they they are unfavourable to it or to Boeing?


First of all, if the WTO rules against Boeing, it's not the US that does anything. "Respect" for the decision won't matter. It's the EU that can then impose retaliatory tariffs. Whether that leads to bilateral discussions about eliminating both the Airbus and Boeing tariffs is anybody's guess. I would suspect it will be highly dependent on the scope of the WTO's ruling, if they in fact rule against Boeing.

Peter - Trump has no ability to respect or disrespect the WTO's ruling in the Boeing case. He can Tweet and stomp around all he wants, and it won't affect the ruling. What the EU does with that ruling is entirely up to the EU.

I have more than a passing knowledge of both cases, as I work in the aerospace industry. The case against Boeing is not nearly as strong/significant as the case against Airbus. If the WTO rules against Boeing, I expect the "award" to be smaller than the $7.5B in the Airbus case. We'll see.
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