Predicting Ageibility

So.....we all "know" how to predict that some wines will age into something profound when we first taste them. If it's black as the ace-of-spades, huge extraction, huge fruit, high alcohol, plenty of toasty/oak, big tannins, huge scores out of Monktown...we all know & recognize that genre...it's a no-brainer that they'll evolve into something special. Colgin/ScreamingEagle/Harlan/Pavie/Alban/SQN/Grange are some that come to mind.
And then there are some that don't fit that exact paradigm...notably Barolo/Barbaresco. They don't have a lot of fruit or color (or shouldn't have), but they have a tannic structure that takes your head off and you just "know" they will age into something great. Tuscan Sangio & Brunello also fit that character to a lesser extent. Perhaps Burgundy. Perhaps Northern Rhone.
And then there are some that totally baffle me. As I was writing my TN up on the Geyserville '12...I thought it was an attractive enough OV Zin, but didn't see anything particularly profound about it. Then I looked at Eric's predicted ageibility: 11/13-11/23-11/28 !! I didn't see anything in that wine I thought would carry it out 18 yrs..except maybe its perfect balance.
I had the Ridge Zin EastBench '08 last weekend. That wine, on release, was just a simple raspberry/vanilla-oak pretty Zin w/ nothing particularly to recommend it or putting any away. It had, in fact, put on a fair amount of weight and had a lot of blackberry/Zin fruit, developed some complexity, and, though not profound, was an absolutely delicious-drinking Zin that could go another 3-5 yrs I expect.
I find my experience w/ many Ridge ATP Zins much like that EastBench. Nothing thrilling, kinda simple/light when I first taste them, but they have this uncanny knack of rising up, down the road w/ some age, and biting you on the a$$ w/ how good they are. Same story w/ many of the EdStJohn reds. Same thing w/ the Cedarville Syrah '98 recently. Many of the Novy Syrahs and the Siduri Pinots.
Crimeny...how do you go about identifying these kinds of wines for ageibility?? Is it the balance they often show when young that allows them to age into something great? Do you just rely on your experience w/ that producer/winemaker on deciding which of these wines will age well? How do you explain that to a novice that..yeah...this Qupe Sonnie's Syrah is not nearly as impressive as the Alban Syrah from across the road...but it will age into something great. They give you this half-cocked look...yeah/sure...and then buy the Alban at 5X the price.
Anywho...I'm still trying to figure out this wine ageibility thing. I need to take more data points. My wine world would be a whole lot simpler if I just relied on Laube & Parker, look at their big scores, and buy what they tell me to. But then I'd spend a whole lot more $$'s, I suspect.
Somebody please help me out. End of today's pontifications.
Tom

Hi Tom,
You might find this article by Tim Patterson in Wines and Vines interesting

http://www.winesandvines.com/template.c ... tent=56673

“Predicting whether a wine will “hold together” for 20 years is easier than predicting how it will smell and taste”.

Salute

Won't the huge extraction, huge alcohol, huge everything wines become an undrinkable mess?

Some will turn into undrinkable mess, but some will turn into the most sublime wines you can imagine. If I have not tried mature examples that please me, I, too, will remain cautious when it comes to buying young wines that grab you by the lapel screaming "I´m a bomb of tannins, anthocyans, alcohol and residual sugar!" I grew up on left bank Bordeaux, and those wines were not good to drink when young, they demanded cellaring, as do the very powerful, modern wines I buy today.

Greetings from Sweden / Fredrik L

Hi Tom,
You might find this article by Tim Patterson in Wines and Vines interesting
http://www.winesandvines.com/template.c ... tent=56673
“Predicting whether a wine will “hold together” for 20 years is easier than predicting how it will smell and taste”.
Salute

Interesting article that I'd not seen. Thanks for the link, Victor.
Tom

Won't the huge extraction, huge alcohol, huge everything wines become an undrinkable mess?

Well, Brian......they can. But not all. Some of those that I describe in the first paragraph simply just "last" and don't really develop
any traits that thrill or any complexity.
What's the point of drinking a 20 yr old Syrah that tastes just as young & fruit-packed as it did when it was released?? Makes no sense.
Tom

Great topic! I was "Somming" at a restaurant recently and a guest told me that she's been in the habit of buying a bottle of wine upon the birth of each of her grandchildren with the idea that the wine would be opened upon each grandchild's 21st birthday. On each such occasion, everyone had been sorely disappointed. Knowing the wine generally available within a ten mile radius, I was not surprised - pretty much "grocery store" wines.
So, she asked me how to tell what wines age well. This was asked as if there was a code on the bottle easily deciphered by a Sommelier.
I hit the highlights: (that very little wine is meant to age, tannin, structure, red / white) and I could see the predicted glazing of the eyes; that, and my limited time, caused me to cut the conversation short. I suggested that in the future, she go to a fine wine shop in a more urban area and speak to a knowledgeable wine salesperson. Then she tells me she doesn't expect any more grandchildren!
Anyway, I look forward to reading the article in Wines and Vines.

So.....we all "know" how to predict that some wines will age into something profound when we first taste them. If it's black as the ace-of-spades, huge extraction, huge fruit, high alcohol, plenty of toasty/oak, big tannins, huge scores out of Monktown...we all know & recognize that genre...it's a no-brainer that they'll evolve into something special. Colgin/ScreamingEagle/Harlan/Pavie/Alban/SQN/Grange are some that come to mind.

I dispute this. As someone previously stated, they'll evolve into an undrinkable mess. Over-oaked fruit bombs don't age gracefully.

-Paul W.

So.....we all "know" how to predict that some wines will age into something profound when we first taste them. If it's black as the ace-of-spades, huge extraction, huge fruit, high alcohol, plenty of toasty/oak, big tannins, huge scores out of Monktown...we all know & recognize that genre...it's a no-brainer that they'll evolve into something special. Colgin/ScreamingEagle/Harlan/Pavie/Alban/SQN/Grange are some that come to mind.

I dispute this. As someone previously stated, they'll evolve into an undrinkable mess. Over-oaked fruit bombs don't age gracefully.
-Paul W.

Uhhhhh...Paul...I hope you realize that descriptor of how some critics predict ageibility was written TFIC.
OTOH...not all of them turn into an alcoholic mess. They often don't do much more than "last"..but never develop the complexity you'd like in an aged wine.
Tom

Here’s Part II of Tim’s article for those interested
http://www.winesandvines.com/template.c ... ines%20Age

Salute

I still remember the expensive cabernet from Calistoga that I held onto for only five years. Nothing left but alcohol...even the fruit disappeared. We gave it to a Scotch drinker.

Ridge folks know FAR MORE about the window of drinkability for their wines than any wine critic - even those in Monkton, MD.

I've bought every vintage of Geyserville since 1987 (picked up the 2012s last week) and almost never drink them before age ten.

Wow. Went on Google Streetview. Monkton is pretty...POSH. LOL.

Brian,

I have a sister who lived in Monkton for many years. Its gorgeous horse country north of Baltimore.

Tom and Paul,
One of the often overlooked factors in the successful aging of wine is the acidity IMO. High tannin content without supporting acidity won't lead to a wine that ages gracefully. OTOH, you can have wines with little in the way of polyphenolics that still can age well owing to their high acidity. Those fruit bombs are often low in acidity, which clearly raises questions re their long term potential.

Tom, as far as predicting ageability, one of the biggest variables is what people look for in aged wine. As an example, I have almost never encountered a wine that I felt was "too old." Even the oldest, most delicate wines hold interest for me, albeit briefly. Yet, often when I look at notes posted in CellarTracker, people declare wines "over the hill" that I think are either too young or just barely reaching maturity. Bottle variation may account for a bit of this disparity, but most of it I am certain is a result of our differing tastes in wine. Even most of the critics (apart from the noted oenogerontophile John Gilman) underestimate the "drinking windows" for wines according to my tastes.

Mark Lipton

Even most of the critics (apart from the noted oenogerontophile John Gilman) underestimate the "drinking windows" for wines according to my tastes.

This has also been my experience.

But, for example, I'm shocked when I read people drinking 2000+ Bordeaux. I still have lots of '83s, '85s, '86s, '88s and '89s that I'm in no rush to drink. '86s are being willed to my grandchildren. They may live long enough to enjoy.

Tom, as far as predicting ageability, one of the biggest variables is what people look for in aged wine. As an example, I have almost never encountered a wine that I felt was "too old." Even the oldest, most delicate wines hold interest for me, albeit briefly. Yet, often when I look at notes posted in CellarTracker, people declare wines "over the hill" that I think are either too young or just barely reaching maturity. Bottle variation may account for a bit of this disparity, but most of it I am certain is a result of our differing tastes in wine. Even most of the critics (apart from the noted oenogerontophile John Gilman) underestimate the "drinking windows" for wines according to my tastes.
Mark Lipton

Yup...totally agree, Mark. What you want in an old wine very much depends upon your experience and your expectations. Give a 15 yr old Geyserville
to one of the folks hauling out a case of 2$Chuck at TJ's and they'd probably reject it.
I've had a lot of old wines that I'd definitely call over-the-hill and I think you'd not like them, either. They usually go down the drain. And then I've had a
lot of old wines I call "interesting" and I enjoy trying them, but they are more intellectual interests and don't offer up a whole lot of sensual pleasure
or enjoyment.
But mostly it depends on what you like and what thrills you.
Tom

I've had a lot of old wines that I'd definitely call over-the-hill and I think you'd not like them, either. They usually go down the drain. Tom

Yes but the upright storage in your garage sucks!

Whether acids trumps phenols when it comes to aging I think the style/type of wine and the techniques used to produce the wine has to be considered. Wines produced using mostly reductive techniques; I would have to say the acid (and other factors) trumps phenols when it comes to aging. Wines produced using more “traditional” (oxidative) techniques; phenols play a major role in aging (in keeping the wine “together” (“lasting power”) so that the other components could do their thing). When it comes to bouquet aroma (aged aromas), acids most definitely play a big role; phenols on the other hand contribute to mouth- feel (texture) and complexity (a characteristic of a wine that is harder to “measure” than aroma).

Most definitely “aged wines” aren’t for everyone.

Salute