I have no doubt the 2007s will be dumped. There were few sold as futures that went down the pipeline to consumers, and the trade bought although they knew the prices were too high to protect allocations. That allocation may help, if they can now find ways of creatively selling 2009 on the back of the 2007 vintage. Otherwise, '07 will gum up the market for years to come.
A couple of years ago, I came to Bordeaux wondering how long the negotiant system could survive. That was before the financial crisis hit, when even then,it was obvious that 2007 was a problem. Nevertheless I left Bordeaux realizing that the negoce system was working, although I thought many players would leave the market, but then, there would always be replacements. It is an incredibly efficient way to distribute wine. There will be plenty of short term disruption, but the fundamentals remain strong. So, expect bargains, and packages with stronger vintages, but 2007 will not fundamentally change the market any more than another other problem year, 1997.
AlexR wrote:David,
I think the 2007s will be dumped.
It doesn't make me happy to say that, and those who bought them on a futures basis will have suffered.
However, that is the name of the game: you can never be sure of anything with en primeur purchasing.
The wine trade will take a hit, but then they will keep their place in line to buy into the good vintages and recoup their losses.
In theory, anyway

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All the best,
Alex