Bordeaux "worried" about a great vintage??

I just read something that left me shaking my head: Since I don't own the copyright, allow me to paraphrase: The winemakers et al in Bordeaux should be worried( WORRIED!!) that the 2006s might be as good as the 2005s BECAUSE they are trying so hard to sell the 2005s at a premium!

So here's my question:

Is the author is saying the Bordelais would be HAPPIER if a near catastrophe were to happen to the 06 vintage? Would the Bordelais be happier if a swarm of locusts attacked?? Maybe a raging fire at harvest time too?

Maybe some winemakers here can help me figure out the point. Is it more profitable for me to sell ONE GREAT (Albeit overhyped vintage) than TWO?

Sorry just shaking my head here....

I'd like to see what you read... If you're worried about plagiarism, just use quotation marks and credit the author.

Also, I wouldn't be using the word Holocaust to refer to agriculture. The term isn't readily used as a metaphor and is somewhat disingenuous.

I personally can't see what they're worried about. If anything, the 2005 vintage, where hype and perceived quality meet at an astronomical fulcrum, has proven to growers, exporters and retailers alike that consumers have more money than ever. Fact is, from what I've heard Petrus is having no problem selling out of $2500/bottle futures, so why not sell the 2006's for the same amount? More money in the pockets...

I, on the other hand, am indeed worried about prices being stupid for a second straight year, as I can not readily afford many esteemed chateaux this year. Overall I suppose it is a bad time to begin collecting Bordeaux.

Actually holocaust (lower case) is commonly used to describe mass destruction and loss of life by fire, but I understand your concern so I changed it.

In theory, one might think a bad vintage would increase prices for 05, but wouldn't that also kill (metaphorically) any income for 06? Yes it would, so it's a non-sequitor IMO to say the are worried. If 06 causes 05 prices to drop 25%, they'll more than make up for it.

Interesting. I don't think any grower would want a bad year. Ever. A great year adds to the lustre of the region and would never be turned down.

Merchants who hold large stocks of previous years might be concerned, and there's always a risk that what had previously been called the vintage of the century (00, 03, 05), now looks like it was overhyped. As for their 01, 02, 04 vintages, they might now seem like a millstone and they could be very wary of buying the next average vintage, which might then I suppose hit the growers.

Those that play the market might also begin to doubt the hyperbole, however if they've just made money on the 05's then they'll undoubtedly look to graze hard on the 06's as well. As long as everyone keeps playing, the bubble won't burst.

Wine buyers should beware of an over-heating market and if speculators are playing hard, then only buy if (a) the price is fine for you and you like the typical wines under the label - and wouldn't shed a tear if (the worst occurs) the wines halve in value (b) there's no other wines that offer you more interest for your money.

Buying for gain puts an added pressure that I personally don't want.

Bordeaux interests me in small doses and I'm happy to buy occasional mature vintages rather than take a punt against the speculators.

regards

Ian

Jamie,

Interesting read you had. I too would at least like to know the source, if not the actual content.

Can't really comment upon the "no, I don't want 2006 to be a great vintage' hypothesis of the author/Bordeaux winemakers, but I hope to some extent that it is at least a very, very good vintage (as in, close to the level of '05, or at least as good as '03 and even '00 are reported as being).

To my way of thinking, that just might place enough pressure on retailers who have stocks of '01, '02 and '04s, which I hope means those wines would begin to get marked down dramatically as the retailers have money tied up in those vintages, not to mention '03 and '05, so they gotta get them out to free up resources to get the '06s.

This sorta-kinda happened in '91-'92 when the '86s were still in the market, no one cared about '87, the supposedly so-so '88s came into being without massive hype (although I've come across some wonderful '88s, and most retailers did buy since '87 "sucked"), and then the hype machine began for '89s and to some extent the '90s. About the time the '89s were on the way to our shores, Arpy started throwing even bigger numbers at the '90s (so retailers had to really buy big after spending pretty big on the '89s [they had some '90s, but previously, I think money was on the '89s]), the retailers were dumping those semi-off vintages left and right.

Just about the only way I can afford Bordeaux any more . . .

I think I'm with Ian. I certainly don't think any winemaker wants a poor vintage... perhaps I could be convinced they would prefer a very good vintage rather than 'vintage of the month' as we seem to get from Arpy these days...

Mike