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James Roscoe
Chat Prince
11034
Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:43 pm
D.C. Metro Area - Maryland
Dave Erickson wrote:Damn, I wish Chateau Ste. Michelle was publicly traded...I'd start loading up now!
James Roscoe wrote:These guys can't predict tomorrow's weather accurately, let alone the weather for next week. Why should we get all worried about what's going to happen in 30 - 50 years? They have the exact same equipment. They use the exact same models, yet they can't get it right with any real accuracy. We complain about 5 - 7% of our wine bottles being corked, but if that was the percentage that the weather missed the forecast we would be happy. There is no question that global warming is real. The question is how do we trust these computer models that have such a high degree of error?
James Roscoe
Chat Prince
11034
Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:43 pm
D.C. Metro Area - Maryland
James Roscoe wrote:I just ask how we trust computer models that are programmed by human beings and have a degree of error?
Sam Platt
I am Sam, Sam I am
2330
Sat Mar 25, 2006 12:22 pm
Indiana, USA
James Roscoe wrote:I just ask how we trust computer models that are programmed by human beings and have a degree of error?
Carl Eppig (Middleton, NH wrote:Follow the money:
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/John ... enient_lie
Sam Platt
I am Sam, Sam I am
2330
Sat Mar 25, 2006 12:22 pm
Indiana, USA
James Roscoe
Chat Prince
11034
Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:43 pm
D.C. Metro Area - Maryland
Sam Platt wrote:The mention of "right wing born agains" and former Democratic presidential candidates is more evidence for how politicized the global warming debate has become. Unfortunately the issue of global climate change is complex. The causes of global climate change are many, varied and completely non-political. We are dealing with a non-sound bite problem in the age of sound bite solutions. This will not end well unless the world community at large is able to rise above name calling and work the issue in a non-partisan manner. There may well be too much political hay to be made for that to happen in time.
Just a reminder in order to help keep the discussion as non-divisive as possible: We all like wine. I like both red and white wine!
It's a sorry state of affairs indeed.John Stossel? He's the Per-Henrick Masson of political commentary.
James Roscoe
Chat Prince
11034
Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:43 pm
D.C. Metro Area - Maryland
David Creighton
Wine guru
1217
Wed May 24, 2006 10:07 am
ann arbor, michigan
James Roscoe
Chat Prince
11034
Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:43 pm
D.C. Metro Area - Maryland
Peter May
Pinotage Advocate
3905
Mon Mar 20, 2006 11:24 am
Snorbens, England
Robin Garr wrote:
production in the Napa and Sonoma valleys and Santa Barbara County would essentially be eliminated by the late 21st century.
Sam Platt
I am Sam, Sam I am
2330
Sat Mar 25, 2006 12:22 pm
Indiana, USA
Craig W wrote:Telling people that climate change is unproven, unscientific, wrong, politically-motivated, fundamentalist, not related to human involvement or even non-existant is as much propaganda as is the warning that we have to do something. The difference being that to question it, after we as a society have poured billions of dollars and hundreds of careers into it, is completely ignorant and substantiatively baseless.
Sam Platt wrote:James Roscoe wrote:I just ask how we trust computer models that are programmed by human beings and have a degree of error?
I did some work on climate modeling in a past life. The atmosphere is very complex as are the models that predict atmospheric behavior. The main stream academic models generally agreed (at that time) that the climate will warm somewhere between 1.5 and 5 degrees C from between now and 2150. That is a large variation in predicted warming.
James Roscoe
Chat Prince
11034
Wed Mar 22, 2006 6:43 pm
D.C. Metro Area - Maryland
Mark Lipton wrote:Well said, Sam. I'll add to that that comparing weather forecasting with climate modeling is an apples-and-oranges situation. As you know, climate modeling deals in long-range and global trends that are amenable to statistical modeling. In contrast, telling someone whether it'll rain in Detroit tomorrow requires a detailed model of a highly complex system that moreover displays chaotic behavior.
Mark Lipton
(Not that kind of scientist)
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